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start hoarding nickels
Mass Inflation Ahead -- Save Your Nickels!
By James Wesley, Rawles -- Editor of www.SurvivalBlog.com I've often mused about how fun it would be to have a time machine and travel back to the early 1960s, and go on a pre-inflation shopping spree. In that era, most used cars were less than $800, and a new-in-the box Colt .45 Automatic sold for $60. In particular, it would be great to go back and get a huge pile of rolls of then-circulating US silver dimes, quarters, and half dollars at face value. (With silver presently around $15.50 per ounce, the US 90% silver (1964 and earlier) coinage is selling wholesale at 11 times face value--that is $11,000 for a $1,000 face value bag.) The disappearance of 90% silver coins from circulation in the US in the mid-1960s beautifully illustrated Gresham's Law: "Bad Money Drives Out Good." People quickly realized that the debased copper sandwich coins were bogus, so anyone with half a brain saved every pre-'65 (90% silver) coin that they could find. (This resulted in a coin shortage from 1965 to 1967, while the mint frantically played catch up, producing millions of cupronickel "clad" coins. This production was so hurried that they even skipped putting mint marks on coins from 1965 to 1967.) Alas, there are no time machines. But what if I were to tell you that there is a similar,albeit smaller-scale opportunity? Consider the lowly US five cent piece--the "nickel." Unlike US dimes and quarters, which stopped being made of 90% silver after 1964, the composition of a nickel has essentially been unchanged since the end of World War II. It is still a 5 gram coin that is an alloy of 75% copper and 25% nickel. (An aside: Some 1942 to 1945 five cent coins were made with 35% silver, because nickel was badly-needed for wartime industrial use. Those "War Nickels" have long since been culled from circulation, by collectors.) According to www.Coinflation.com, the 1946-2008 Nickel (with a 5 cent face value) presently a has base metal value of $0.0677413. That is 135.48% of its face value. Hence, even at today's commodities prices, you will start out with a 35% gain by amassing a stockpile of nickels.) The Root of the Problem It is inevitable that any country that issues a continually-inflated fiat paper currency will run into the problem of their coinage eventually having its base metal value exceed its face value. When this happens, it is one of those embarrassing "emperor's new clothes" moments. Unless a government takes the drastic step of lopping off a zero or two from their currency, this coinage problem is inevitable. In essence, we were robbed by our own government when silver coins were replaced with copper sandwich coins in the 1960s. I predict that essentially the same thing will soon to happen with nickels. Helicopter Ben Bernanke will inflate his way out of the current liquidity crisis. through artificial lowering of interest rates, massive injections of liquidity, and monetization of the Federal debt. That can only spell one thing: inflation, and plenty of it. Mass inflation will mean much higher commodities prices (at least from the perspective of the US currency.) I predict that for at least the next six months the US Mint will continues to produce nickels with the current metals composition. This is an open window of opportunity, during which time SurvivalBlog readers can salt away countless bags of nickels. Within just a few years, the base metal value of a nickel is likely to exceed two times ("2X") its face value. (10 cents each.) The nickel will then begin to disappear from circulation. (Gresham's law is unavoidable.) Unlike the mid-1960s experience, the missing nickels will not cause a crisis, since pennies will suffice, and most vending machines now use dimes as their smallest purchase increment. Meanwhile, most bridge tolls and toll roads have inflated so that tolls are in 25 cent increments. The demise of the nickel will hardly cause a ripple in the news. Unless they decide to drop the issuance of nickels entirely, the US Mint will within the next three years be forced to introduce a "new" nickel with a debased composition. It will possibly be zinc (flashed with silver) or possibly even aluminum. Why Not Pennies? You may ask, why not accumulate 95% copper (pre-1983 mint date) pennies? They already have a base metal value of 2.2 cents each. Unfortunately, pennies have two problems: confusion and bulk. They are confusing, because 95% copper pennies are now circulating side-by-side with 97.5% zinc pennies. They are also about four times as bulky (per dollar of face value) as nickels. With nickels you won't have to spend time sorting out pre-1983 varieties. At present, sorting pennies simply isn't worth your time. Although I suppose that if someone were to invent an automated density-measuring penny sorting machine, he could make a fortune. As background: The pre-1983 pennies presently have a base metal value of about $0.0226 each.) Starting in 1983, the mint switched to 97.5% zinc pennies that are just flashed with copper. Those presently have a base metal value of about $0.0071 each. Pennies are absurdly bulky and heavy to store. Nickels are also quite bulky, but are at least manageable for a small investor's storage. (Storing pennies would take a tremendous amount of space and constitute a huge weight per dollar invested.) The biggest advantage of nickels over pennies is that there is no date/composition confusion. At least for now, a nickel is a nickel. Even the newly-minted "large portrait" nickels have the same 75/25 cupronickel composition. But that is likely to change within just a couple of years. The US Mint cannot go on minting nickels at a loss much longer. My advice: start filling ammo cans with $2 (40 coin) rolls of nickels. (The .30 caliber size can is the perfect width for rolls of nickels. Any larger containers would be difficult to move easily. Cardboard boxes are fragile, and lack a carry handle. But ammo cans are very sturdy, have an integral handle, and they are relatively cheap and plentiful. They are available at military surplus stores and gun shows.) Right now, you are effectively getting 6.7 cent nickels for 5 cents each. (Or think of it as $135 for each $100 invested in 50 rolls of nickels.) That might not seem like much of a gain. Someday, however, when nickels are worth 4X to 8X their face value, your children will thank you for it. Consider it an investment in your children's future. In December of 2006, the US congress passed a law making it illegal to bulk export or melt down pennies and nickels. But once the old composition pennies and nickels have been driven out of circulation, that is likely to change. In fact, a bill now before congress would remove pre-1983 pennies from the melting ban. In any case, once the base metal value exceeds face value by about 3X, an investor's market will develop, regardless of whether or not melting is re-legalized. Count on it. What if Uncle Sam Decides to Drop a Zero? As previously noted in SurvivalBlog, inflation of the US dollar has been chronic, cumulative, and insidious. So much so that turns of phrase from old movies like "penny candy" and "its your nickel" (to describe the cost of a call on a pay phone) now seem quaint and outdated. When inflation goes on long enough, the number of digits required to express a price grows too large. (As has been seen with the Italian lira, the Zimbabwean dollar, and countless other currencies. One whitewash solution to chronic inflation that several other nations have chosen is dropping one, two, or even three zeros from their currency, in an overnight revaluation, with a mandatory paper currency exchange. The history of the past century has shown that when doing so, most governments re-issue only new paper currency, but leave the old coinage in circulation, at the same face value. (Because the sheer logistics of a coinage swap would be daunting.) Typically, this leaves the holders of coinage as the unexpected beneficiaries of a 10X, 100X.or even 1,000 gain of the value of their coins. Governments just assume that most citizens just have a couple of pocketfuls of coins at any given time. So if this were to happen while you are sitting on a pile of nickels, you will make a handsome profit. You could merely spend your saved nickels in the new currency regime. How To Build Your Pile of Nickels How can you amass a big pile-o-nickels? Obviously just saving the few that you normally receive as pocket change is insufficient. Here are some possibilities: 1.) If you live in a state with nickel slot machine gambling (such as Nevada or New Jersey), or near an Indian tribal casino with nickel slots, go to a casino frequently and buy $50 in nickels at a time. Do your best to look like a gambler when doing so, by carrying a plastic change bucket with a few nickels in the bottom. 2.) Obtain nickels in rolls from your friendly local bank teller. Most "retail" banks are already accustomed to handing over rolls of coins to private depositors because of collector demand for statehood commemorative quarters and the new presidential dollar coins. Ask for $20 or $30 of nickels in rolls each time that you visit to do your normal banking deposits or withdrawals. It is best to ask for new "wrapped" (fresh Federal Reserve Bank issue) rolls. This way, you might have the chance of getting rolls with valuable minting errors--such as "double die" strikes. These are usually noticed and publicized a few months after the fact, and can be quite valuable. You will also be assured that you are getting full 40 coin rolls. (Getting shorted with 38 or 39 coin rolls is possible with hand-rolled coins.) If the tellers ask why you want so many, you can honestly tell them: "I'm working on a collection for my children." (You need not tell them how large a collection it is!) 3.) If you live in or near an urban area and you operate a business, you can effectively "buy" rolled coinage from your commercial bank. (They generally will not do any business with anyone unless they have an account.) It might be worth your while to on paper start a side business with "Vending Service" in its name, and have business cards and stationary printed up in that name. Have that "DBA" business entity name added to your commercial bank account. At a high-volume commercial bank you could conceivably buy hundreds or even thousands of dollars worth of nickels on the pretense of stocking change for a vending business. Depending on your relationship with the bank, they may waive any fees if you ask for a few rolls of coins. Be advised, however, that if you ask for any significant quantity at one time, they will probably charge you a premium. (Down in the small print of your account contract, there is probably wording something like this: "Coin Issued - Per Roll: .03 Currency Issued - Per $ 100: .08" Before you cry "foul", be aware that the Federal Reserve actually charges your bank a small premium when they obtain wrapped rolls of coins. (Most folks have held to the convenient fiction that a paper dollar was the same as a dollar in change. Obviously, it isn't.) In effect, your commercial banker will just be passing along this cost to you. Unless they charge you a heavy fee, don't worry about it. Ten years from now, when a $2 roll of nickel is worth $16, you'll be laughing about how you obtained $4,000 face value in nickels at just a small fraction over their face value. 4.) If you know someone that has a machine vending business, offer to buy all of their excess nickels once every month or two, by offering a small premium. 5.) If you operate a "mom and pop" retail business with a walk-in clientele, put up a small sign next to your cash register that reads: "WANTED: Rolls of nickels for my collection. I pay $2.25 per 40 coin ($2) roll, regardless of year!" Once the nickel shortage develops (as it inevitably will), you should raise you premium gradually, to keep a steady stream of coin rolls coming in. After this is posted, I'm sure that I'm going to get plenty of ridicule and perhaps even some hate mail, accusing me of "hoarding." So be it. Let me preemptively state that I realize that money tied up in coins will not benefit from the interest that a bank deposit would earn. But foregoing interest is not a major concern. Why? Because I think that it is a fairly safe bet that commodity price inflation will outstrip the prevailing interest rates for at least the next five years. In five years, the circulating nickel as we now know it, will be history, and it will be treated with nearly the same reverence that we now give to pre-'65 silver coinage. We saw what happened when clad copper dimes, quarters and half dollars were introduced in 1965. We should learn from history. Something comparable will very likely soon to happen with nickels. You, as a SurvivalBlog.com reader, are now armed with that knowledge. You can and should benefit from it, before Uncle Sugar performs his next sleight of hand trick and starts passing off silver-plated zinc tokens as "nickels". - James Wesley, Rawles -- Editor of www.SurvivalBlog.com Permission to forward, repost, or reprint this article is granted, but only in its entirely with attribution and links intact. Copyright 2007, 2008. All Rights Reserved by James Wesley, Rawles - www.SurvivalBlog.com� Permission to reprint, repost or forward this article in full is granted, but only if it is not edited or excerpted. About the Author: James Wesley, Rawles is a former U.S. Army Intelligence officer and a noted author and lecturer on survival and preparedness topics. He is the author of the novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse" and is the editor of SurvivalBlog.com--the popular daily web journal for prepared individuals living in uncertain times. |
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Nice one. Made a mental note.
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If the tellers ask why you want so many, you can honestly tell them: "I'm working on a collection for my children." (You need not tell them how large a collection it is!)
Excellent alibi. T |
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"You may ask, why not accumulate 95% copper (pre-1983 mint date) pennies? They already have a base metal value of 2.2 cents each. Unfortunately, pennies have two problems: confusion and bulk. They are confusing, because 95% copper pennies are now circulating side-by-side with 97.5% zinc pennies. They are also about four times as bulky (per dollar of face value) as nickels.
With nickels you won't have to spend time sorting out pre-1983 varieties. At present, sorting pennies simply isn't worth your time. Although I suppose that if someone were to invent an automated density-measuring penny sorting machine, he could make a fortune. As background: The pre-1983 pennies presently have a base metal value of about $0.0226 each.) Starting in 1983, the mint switched to 97.5% zinc pennies that are just flashed with copper. Those presently have a base metal value of about $0.0071 each. Pennies are absurdly bulky and heavy to store. Nickels are also quite bulky, but are at least manageable for a small investor's storage. (Storing pennies would take a tremendous amount of space and constitute a huge weight per dollar invested.) " UMM, maybe he hasn't heard........ |
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I was thinking the same thing when I read that. so Ryedale, Have you made a fortune yet? and another question, How come you took the sorter out of your avatar pic? |
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I've got 5 tons of 95% copper and counting...adding another ton every 4 months. Goal is 20 tons....or 1 full semi-truck load (by weight). Expect to get 85% of spot....when spot is well over $10/lb. This will likely happen inside of 5 years. 40,000 lbs x $10/lb x 85% = $340,000 on an initial investment of $60,000.
Copper is currently near $4/lb......assume constant 15% to 20% inflation and it should easily more than double unside of 5 years....so, I think $10/lb is on the low side.... This hobby/investment requires about 8 hours per week. 5 years x 52 weeks/yr x 8hrs/wk = 2080 hours of labor....that is the same as 1 year of a typical full time job.......so, $340,000 profit / 2080 hours = $163/hr.....even in a world of 15% - 20% inflation....that is outstanding pay....with a 100% guarantee of being worth face value. Got Tons?!?!? Since everyone asks....1 ton will fill an oil drum....so, storage is not an issue...... |
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Dam........Now thats what Im talking about....Got it down to a dam science!!! HARDCORE COPPER REBEL!! T |
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I made a mistake......$340,000 value at 85% of spot....initial cost of $60,000.....thus profit of "just" $280,000.......$280k / 2080 hours = $135/hr profit for the effort.....
My 8 hours per week is as follows: 2 hours to pick up fresh coins, 2 hours to sort (I have multiple sorting machines), remaining 2 to 4 hours to organize/clean up and most of that time to dump/return zinc pennies to various banks. My local copper percentage has been right around 29%....the remainder is zinc..... Current metal value of a copper penny is right around 2.5X face. |
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He has heard, because when this article first came out I emailed him and directed him to your website. He then issued a comment saying such a machine exists (I also pointed out the machines SLV used for his business). Thus, this article is pretty old. Trust me, he knows about you. :wavey: http://www.survivalblog.com/2008/03/...hat_sorts.html http://www.survivalblog.com/2007/11/...save_your.html Edit: The article was first posted on November 12, 2007 at 08:13pm. He posted my response on March 22, 2008 at 09:54 pm http://www.survivalblog.com/cgi-bin/...search=nickels |
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Rup, this is either brilliant or insane. Regardless of the outcome, you are to be commended for at least running the numbers. And I think an ultimate value of $10/lb is reasonable. (Though you forgot to subtract of the interest opportunity cost: $60,000 held for an average of 5 years at 3% compounded is almost $10K. So you'll really only be up $270K!)
So those of us who are able to amass on a much smaller scale, say, $60 face will be profiting $270. Woo-ha!! |
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is it REALLY worth it? how about real calculations?
let's take 1964 kennedy half [i just randomnly took a specific coin - you might want to try the excercise with another coin to see if results are comparable] http://www.coinflation.com/coins/sil...&Submit=Submit it is worth 50c face value but melt value is $6.45... thats 13x value assuming 6% interest rate [edit: rate of investment return], money doubles every 12 years http://www.sorted.org.nz/home/sorted...pound-interest so 50c in the bank in 1964 will be... $1 in 1976 $2 in 1988 $4 in 2000 ... today is $2008, so it should be around $6 at the very least. can you even sell these coins at melt value? i think its a safe assumption if one is gonig to hoard silver/nickel/etc... hoarding of 1 item doesnt make sense. it must be done in volumes - 10, 100, 1000 pounds. is it really worth your time, money and energy compared to just putting it in the bank or better yet the market (yes yes i know, past results dont mean squat AND its different this time). 1000 pounds is really heavy and large amount for storage. how many times have you moved in the last 30 40 years? im thinking, i must come out WAY ahead to hoard. otherwise too much work too little return (yes 13x is too little return... if the ROI is a few decades). pennywise, pound foolish proposition? food for thought. |
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I'm not just talking the talk....I've put away 10,000 lbs of 95% copper so far.... It is a lot of work....those 8 hrs per week add up. I slow down in the summer and pick it up heavier in the winter (I'm in Michigan). I'm about 80% confident it will pan out and make me a $250k in profit.....everything will cost more at that point in time....but I plan on sticking it to the banksters......I have a fixed mortgage at 5%.....I'll pay that off with inflated paper.....so, my $250k in copper profit will do a fine job of killing that debt. I know this much.....it is worth 1 cent in face value...worth 3X in intrinsic value and will likely be worth 10X in intrinsic value in the not too distant futuer. Where else can you gety a guaranteed no lose investment with possible 10X opportunity? |
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Small time penny hoarder here. I do it for fun and relaxation. I sort by hand and enjoy the meditative feeling it gives me, kind of like doing a puzzle. It's also a thrill to come accross the occasional wheat back or other oddity. I find it more enjoyable doing it with someone as you can share the excitment. I've debated getting a ryedale sorting machine as I do think it could be a profitable venture, but then it would be more of a job and not a hobby. There is a very simple elegance to the penny and it makes me feel like a kid to hand sort. As far a nickels, I decided not to hoard on the info that it is very hard and not cost effective to smelt out the nickel from the copper. Would be curious on Gim'ers take on this. Cheers!
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Too bad he did not mention Canadian nickels.
Pre 1982 are PURE Ni. - 100 = 1 lb. |
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+1 I like how you think........ :emotions16::emotions16::emotions16::emotions16: |
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"a bill now before congress would remove pre-1983 pennies from the melting ban. "
Any word if this is true or not???? |
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I dumped $$450 worth of zinc in the last week, and I just picked up $400 worth of customer wrapped rolls today. I'll have these sorted by the end of the week.
Penny sorting is a great no-risk hobby with a high probability of healthy near-future returns. Just don't dump your zinc near me eh :) |
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The zinc ones will be kinda vauable too right??? T |
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if pennies or nickels go to 10X face value
i cant imagine what gold and silver would go to??? i cant beleive copper will advance at a faster rate than silver......making silver the much better buy and you save the work too |
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"...why not accumulate 95% copper (pre-1983 mint date) pennies?..."
A couple of years ago grandma and I stopped spending the '82 & earlier pennies we got in change. Comparatively, today I don't see nearly as many of them as I did even six-months ago. |
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They are going fast goldminer. I'm more of a nickel man myself even though I help run the realcent forums. Mostly because of the sorting involved with the pennies. That's not to say I don't have my share of pennies too. I do notice that more nickel hoarders seem to come to GIM than to realcent. |
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I'd rather re-deposit them to buy more unsorted pennies and turn them into copper while the copper is still to be had. I figure it will be a LONG time before zinc disappears from circulation, but once the melt ban it lifted I'm guessing the copper will vanish within a couple years, tops. Besides, I've got a good deal going with my zinc dump bank where I actually bring in weighed plastic bank bags that are ~$25, deposit them as $25, then the bank sends them to the nearest Fed branch for an exact count and retroactively adjusts my account to make up for any shortage/overage. Not having to count the zincs makes a huge difference in time :emotions16: |
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FORTUNE??? no not yet, this penny thing is definitely a niche market, tough sell too as you can see by this thread. I'm not into telling too many details about it, especially here at GIM with the "no advertising" rule, which I fully understand and try to stick to. I'm just an evil corporate industrialist profiteer... not really. :smile: There are now, however, over 230 machines in service, vacuuming brass out of circulation. I know though that some machines see heavy use, IE tons, and some are used as novelty type items. Some I never hear feedback after a sale. Overall it's still going well, not a perfect design, but people seem happy with it. |
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True you can go buy a box of nickels from your bank and throw it into long term storage but what fun is that? On the flipside though, searching through nickels for silver war nickels or other good dates is tough on the eyes. Searching through pennies can be surprisingly enjoyable and relaxing. I can get through a $25 box of pennies in just over one hour of hand sorting but I am definitely not a mass hoarder like others. My miniscule hoard is just shy of $300 face or 30,000 copper cents.
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